Showing posts with label Ezra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ezra. Show all posts

March 12, 2012

Ezra Holdings

OCBC on 12 Mar 2012

Ezra Holdings (Ezra) announced that it has entered into an agreement to place out 110m shares to institutional and other investors, as well as existing members of the company at an issue price of S$1.10. This represents a discount of about 8.4% to the VWAP of S$1.2007 for trades on 8 Mar 2012. Estimated net proceeds of about S$118.8m will be used for working capital and a range of other purposes. However, the group may still need more funds going forward. We tweak our sum-of-parts valuation to reflect the divestment of Ezion shares as well as the potential increase in share base when the above placement is completed, reducing our fair value estimate to S$1.28 (prev. S$1.51). Due to limited upside potential, we downgrade our rating to HOLD.

Placement to raise S$121m
Following its trading halt on Friday, Ezra Holdings (Ezra) announced that it has entered into a placement agreement with Credit Suisse and DBS Bank in order to raise capital. 110m shares (12.7% of existing share capital) will be placed to institutional and other investors, as well as existing members of the company at an issue price of S$1.10. This represents a discount of about 8.4% to the VWAP of S$1.2007 for trades on 8 Mar 2012, which does not seem too substantial.

For working capital and a range of purposes
After deducting associated costs and expenses, the placement is expected to raise about S$118.8m for Ezra. The group intends to use the funds for general working capital and corporate purposes and/or business opportunities, strategic investments, JVs and/or the paying down of existing debt, capital expenditure or vessel acquisitions.

Still needs more funds?
As mentioned in our 16 Jan 2012 report, out of Ezra’s US$357.5m short-term debt, we estimate that about US$140m of this comprises mainly vessel loans (secured debt) that may be rolled over to a longer term. However, embedded within its US$647.3m of long-term debt is a 4% convertible bond issue (US$100m) which bondholders are likely to redeem. Along with capex of about US$150-175m this year, we estimate the group would need to prepare at least US$460m for these purposes. After taking into account Ezra’s cash level of US$116m, this placement, and its recent divestment of Ezion shares, the group may still need at least US$207m more funds by the end of this year. This could be supported by divestment of non-core assets, as well as the debt markets.

Downgrade to HOLD
We tweak our sum-of-parts valuation to reflect the divestment of Ezion shares as well as the potential increase in share base when the above placement is completed, reducing our fair value estimate to S$1.28 (prev. S$1.51). Due to limited upside potential, we downgrade our rating to HOLD. 

February 22, 2012

Ezra

OCBC on 22 Feb 2012

After announcing contract wins worth up to US$225m YTD, Ezra Holdings’ overall order backlog has exceeded a record US$1.6b. Industry expert Douglas Westwood is also forecasting higher subsea capital expenditure in the industry in the next few years, and Ezra is well positioned to benefit from such trends. We think AMC will start making positive contributions this year as 50% of the subsea order book (currently in excess of US$800m) gets recognized mostly in 2H12. The offshore support business should also be supported by recovering charter rates which are expected to pick up more strongly in 2H12. Along with the recent re-rating of the sector, we increase our peg for the offshore marine and energy business from 13x to 15x, bumping our fair value estimate from S$1.36 to S$1.51. Maintain BUY.

Buoyant outlook for subsea market.After announcing contract wins worth up to US$225m YTD (for both subsea and marine divisions), Ezra Holdings’ overall order backlog has exceeded a record US$1.6b. Industry expert Douglas Westwood is also forecasting higher subsea capital expenditure in the industry in the next few years, with Latin America, Africa and Australasia showing high growth levels. More resources would also be needed to manage the installed infrastructure, with capital spending in this respect estimated to grow 10% annually (repair & maintenance to see greater increase than inspection). This would be driven by aging infrastructure, new wells, and tighter safety standards.

In the running for more contracts.According to Upstream, Delcom is bidding with EMAS (Ezra’s operating brand) for Shell’s first vessel-based chemical enhanced oil recovery project at the St Joseph field off Sabah, Malaysia . EMAS is also teaming up with Afcons and Real Offshore to bid for ONGC’s pipeline replacement project 3 (estimated worth about US$500m) in the Mumbai offshore area .

Further upside available despite strong performance YTD.Ezra’s stock price has risen by about 55% YTD, making it the fifth best performing stock listed on the SGX so far this year (Exhibit 1). It is currently trading at about 13x forward P/E, which is also its historical average since 2005 (Exhibit 2). Looking ahead, assuming there are no hiccups in the execution of the subsea business, we think AMC will start making positive contributions this year as 50% of the subsea order book (currently in excess of US$800m) gets recognized mostly in 2H12. The offshore support business should also be supported by recovering charter rates which are expected to pick up more strongly in 2H12. Along with the recent re-rating of the sector, we increase our peg for the offshore marine and energy business from 13x to 15x, bumping our fair value estimate from S$1.36 to S$1.51. Maintain BUY.